If you want to own affordable waterfront property in Southwest Florida, the window of opportunity is in Cape Coral, and it's closing fast.
Freshwater lots are now $90,000 and higher, saltwater lots are $250,000 and higher and off-water lots have increased rapidly, now up to $60,000 or more.
In Cape Coral, lots have seen record increases for each of the first three months of 2005.
"Cape Coral is special because it has so much water," said Michael Schneider-Christians at Century 21 Sunbelt Realty. "Prices are increasing on a monthly basis, and it's a strong market with no letup in sight."
Considering that in 2003, the average price of a freshwater lot was $35,000, it is difficult to project just how high prices will go.
"Eventually, prices on freshwater lots will have to level out," said Denny Grimes of VIP Realty. He's a contributor to The News-Press Market Watch, an annual event that focuses on local real estate trends.
"If you annualize the current rate of appreciation, which is currently 138 percent, for the next four years, by 2007 we would have prices over $1 million, and that is obviously not going to happen," Grimes said.
With this in mind, it is still unlikely that the so-called bubble is going to burst, Grimes said. Rather, the market will see a flat line or a small correction.
The impact of this depends on whether a buyer is speculating on a lot or making a long-term investment. For example, if the price of a freshwater lot rises from $90,000 to $140,000, then drops to $120,000 after a market correction, the owner is still on the plus side, though a speculator could be impacted for the worse.
"And the market is largely a speculative one," Grimes said.
Summer weather is also a variable. "Last year's hurricanes were viewed as an aberration, but if there are more storms this year, that may impact investor thinking," said Schneider-Christians.
But after this year's record start, prices are so high that both bankers and investors say they are surprised. People are still buying, and banks are still making loans.
The national economy will also play a large part in determining how high prices will go. Factors such as interest rates and currency exchange rates heavily influence foreign investor thinking.
In Cape Coral, when building on a new saltwater lot, a sea wall is required. Owners are given an allotted amount of time to construct one; if they do not, the city will come in and do it, usually for about 30 percent more cost, according to Connie Barron, spokeswoman for the city. There are also limitations on dock sizes, depending on the way a lot is shaped.
"The city has a continuous, active saltwater dredging program," said Barron, "and no active program for fresh water."
Aside from Cape Coral, there are few waterfront properties available in Southwest Florida, and they're expensive. Cape Coral boasts more than 400 miles of canals.
"There isn't really another central location — lots are scattered over the rest of the area, and most of what's left is in south Fort Myers," said Grimes. "Right now, canal access lots in that area are between $500,000 and $1 million."